ClobberBlog | Mormonism, Evangelical Christianity

DJ Drummond at Wizbang has an excellent post fisking the latest stream of Gallup polls showing that Obama’s lead has increased to four points over McCain. Here’s the conclusion of his analysis:

August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63%
August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36%
September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17%
September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51%
September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%

What’s really increasing? How much Gallup is weighting the responses of Democrats, from the looks of it. Whole thing.

UPDATE: DJ has posted a correction to his math, but the point is still the same. Here are what his new numbers look like:

BARACK OBAMA
August 10: 47% Overall, 91% LD, 79% MD, 67% CD, 22% IN, 19% LMR, 6% CR
August 17: 46% Overall, 88% LD, 78% MD, 68% CD, 24% IN, 16% LMR, 6% CR
August 24: 45% Overall, 91% LD, 78% MD, 63% CD, 29% IN, 13% LMR, 5% CR
August 31: 49% Overall, 93% LD, 81% MD, 77% CD, 23% IN, 14% LMR, 4% CR
September 7: 44% Overall, 93% LD, 81% MD, 70% CD, 29% IN, 16% LMR, 3% CR
September 14: 45% Overall, 93% LD, 81% MD, 66% CD, 27% IN, 10% LMR, 3% CR

JOHN McCAIN
August 10: 42% Overall, 5% LD, 13% MD, 20% CD, 33% IN, 70% LMR, 90% CR
August 17: 44% Overall, 6% LD, 14% MD, 23% CD, 34% IN, 75% LMR, 89% CR
August 24: 45% Overall, 6% LD, 13% MD, 26% CD, 31% IN, 77% LMR, 91% CR
August 31: 43% Overall, 4% LD, 11% MD, 15% CD, 29% IN, 78% LMR, 94% CR
September 7: 49% Overall, 4% LD, 12% MD, 21% CD, 28% IN, 78% LMR, 94% CR
September 14: 47% Overall, 5% LD, 12% MD, 24% CD, 32% IN, 85% LMR, 95% CR